Climate-Induced Migration, Rural Livelihoods, and Social Transformation in Pakistan

Abstract

Climate-induced migration is increasingly shaping rural livelihoods and social structures in Pakistan, where agricultural communities remain highly vulnerable to floods, droughts, and extreme weather events. This study investigates the drivers, outcomes, and implications of climate-induced migration, drawing on a household survey of 500 rural households across Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, complemented by key informant interviews. Using logistic regression, cross-tabulations, and resilience indicators, the study identifies climate shocks, limited landholding, low income, and social networks as significant determinants of migration, while education reduces migration likelihood by enabling alternative adaptive strategies. Results show that migrant households experience higher income, food security, and shorter recovery times, but at the cost of growing dependence on remittances and declining agricultural labor availability. Migration also generates notable social transformations, including greater women’s decision-making roles and enhanced educational aspirations, alongside risks of rural depopulation. The findings highlight migration as both an adaptation strategy and a driver of structural change in rural Pakistan. Policy implications include integrating migration into climate and development planning, strengthening rural livelihoods, supporting women in migrant households, and ensuring urban preparedness for migrant inflows. Overall, climate-induced migration represents both a challenge and an opportunity for building resilience and shaping rural development in Pakistan.